Temporary setup… eyes on a final deal with the US
Iran, aiming to cement control of the strait, demands a ‘7% fee’ on cargo value
Cannot impose tolls·service fees
Possibility of billing ancillary costs for vessel oversight
Even Gulf states eager to end the war ‘support the deal’

Iran and Oman have agreed to establish a temporary route through the Strait of Hormuz. The draft of the temporary agreement prepared by the two countries, with a 60 day time limit, is said to recognize Iranian control over the route while not imposing tolls. However, as the possible introduction of fees amounting to 5~7% of cargo value is being mentioned, attention is focused on whether a final agreement between the United States and Iran will be reached.

Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on the 5th (local time) that Iran and Oman had agreed on the geographic coordinates of the temporary route. Baghaei said, “An agreement has been reached on the geographic coordinates of the proposed route” and added, “A joint statement by the two countries, containing key considerations and points of agreement, is currently under review and in the finalization stage.” It is said that Iran, Oman, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and the United States will jointly announce the agreement.

Reuters reported that the agreement specifies Iranian control over ships using the Iranian side route.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that ships heading to the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz would use the Iranian-side route, while ships leaving the strait for the Arabian Sea would use a route within Omani waters.

Among these, Iran would have control over ships using the inbound route off the coast of Iran, and Reuters assessed it as “the largest concession proposed to Iran so far.”

For now, it appears that neither tolls nor fees are included in this agreement. WSJ reported, citing a source, that “Iran will have oversight authority over vessels entering the Persian Gulf but cannot impose tolls or service fees.” However, there remains the possibility that Iran could bill for ancillary costs arising from the exercise of control, such as inspections·safety management. Given that this agreement also has a 60 day limit and that the temporary route agreed by Iran and Oman will operate for 2~4 months, a system for imposing tolls could be discussed later.

There has in fact been mention of fee levels. Reuters, citing a senior Iranian official, reported that Iran had floated fees of 5~7% of vessel cargo value, and Oman about 3%. Based on roughly 80 dollars per barrel, that would amount to about 11.2 million dollars (about 16 billion won) for a single super-large oil tanker carrying 2 million barrels, and more than 100 billion dollars (about 142 trillion won) in annual revenue based on pre-war traffic levels. Previously, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would charge 20% of cargo value as a ‘safety fee’ but withdrew it a day later, citing investment proposals from Gulf states.

Some Gulf states are reported to have supported the Iran Oman agreement. PBS correspondent Nick Schifrin said on X that day, “Given that in theory Iran can block all imports through the Strait of Hormuz, support from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is surprising,” adding, “It shows that the GCC has made ending the war its top priority.”

However, Iran is likely to proceed cautiously with opening the strait in order to maximize leverage in negotiations with the United States. Iranian Vice Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi emphasized, “The agreement with Oman does not mean a full opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” adding, “No interference by any external power will be tolerated.” This is seen as an attempt to solidify the control of Iran over the Strait of Hormuz as an irreversible fait accompli and then continue follow-up talks with the United States.

President Trump again expressed his desire to reach an agreement with Iran. Speaking in Las Vegas, he said, “I want to make a deal, because I do not want to kill people.” CNN, citing a Middle Eastern source, reported that the probability that Iran and Oman would reach an agreement by the 7th was “50-50.”